The problem investigated in the paper is relevant due to the necessity to increase the efficiency of innovation product release planning and management as well as low innovation product share in Russian production. The paper is aimed at investigating time selection task for project implementation and planning accuracy increase connected with market volume forecasting by taking into account diffusion phenomena when working on competitive markets. The similarity principle with the physical diffusion of particles is suggested to describe diffusion phenomenon. Based on modeling, the paper demonstrates that the obtained results conform well with theoretical and statistical data and allow to formulate the tasks of efficiency increase in formal setting. The significance of obtained results is connected with the possibility to perform the calendar planning of new products by taking into consideration market condition changes
Keywords: innovation, management, diffusion, forecast, prediction, planning, efficiency
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