Management and implementation of innovation project outcomes under environment dynamics and project diffusion

The problem investigated in the paper is relevant due to the necessity to increase the efficiency of innovation product release planning and management as well as low innovation product share in Russian production. The paper is aimed at investigating time selection task for project implementation and planning accuracy increase connected with market volume forecasting by taking into account diffusion phenomena when working on competitive markets. The similarity principle with the physical diffusion of particles is suggested to describe diffusion phenomenon. Based on modeling, the paper demonstrates that the obtained results conform well with theoretical and statistical data and allow to formulate the tasks of efficiency increase in formal setting. The significance of obtained results is connected with the possibility to perform the calendar planning of new products by taking into consideration market condition changes

Keywords: innovation, management, diffusion, forecast, prediction, planning, efficiency


  1. D. A. Novikov, A. V. Tsvetkov. Mechanisms of functioning of organizational systems with distributed control. M.: ICS RAS, 2001.
  2. Federal State Statistics Service. Science and innovations. 2019.
  3. V. N. Burkov, D. A. Novikov. Introduction to active systems theory. M.: ICS RAS, 1996. 125 p.
  4. D. A. Novikov. Theory of organizational systems management. М.: MPSI, 2005. 584 p.
  5. L. Peppal. Imitative Competition and Product Innovation in a Duopoly Model. Vol. 64. № 254. P. 265-279.
  6. M. J. Wooldridge. An introduction to multiagent systems. J. Wiley, 2009. 484 p.
  7. P. M. Simonov. Economic and mathematical modelling. Perm: PSU, 2010. 422 p.
  8. I. L. Tukkel, A. V. Surina, N. B. Kultin. Innovative project management. SPb.: BHV-Petersburg, 2011. 416 p.
  9. L. A. Mylnikov, B. Krauze, M. Kuetz et al. Intelligent data analysis in production system management: approaches and methods/ed. L. A. Mylnikov. M.: «Biblio-globus», 2017. 272 p.
  10. I. Adizes. Corporate lifecycles: how and why corporations grow and die and what to do about it. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1988.
  11. F. Gault, E. von Hippel. The Prevalence of User Innovation and free Innovation Transfers//Implic. Stat. Indic. Innov. Policy. MIT Sloan Sch. Manag. Pap. #4722-09. 2009.
  12. S. G. Selivanov, M. B. Guzairov, A. A. Kutin. Innovation. М.: Mashinostrienie, 2013. 640 p.
  13. E. M. Rogers. Diffusion of innovations. New York, NY: Free Press, 2003.
  14. N. A. Tsvetkova, I. L. Tukkel. Models of innovation diffusion: from description to management of innovation processes//Innovations. 2017. № 11 (229). P. 106-111.
  15. A. Y. Khrennikov. Ubiquitous Quantum Structure. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010.
  16. D. Hay, D. Morris. Industry organization theory. SPb: Ekonomitscheskaya shkola, 1999. 384 p.
  17. J. Mejнa, R. Britto, O. Buitrago. A forecast model for diffusion of innovations based on molecular diffusion//Ciкncia e Tйcnica Vitivinнcola. 2015. Vol. 30. P. 41-54.
  18. L. A. Mylnikov. Effective management of the dynamic portfolio of innovative production systems projects//Pre-Caspian Journal of Management and High Technology. 2019. Vol. 46. № 2. P. 10-21.
  19. V. M. Vinokur, A. V. Trusov. Intellectual property as the basis of innovation activity. Perm: PSTU, 2004.
  20. L. A. Mylnikov. Issues of forming a dynamic portfolio of innovative projects in production systems with discrete time//XIII All-Russian Meeting on Management Problems. М.: ICS RAS, 2019. P. 3134-3138.
  21. S. I. Mezhov. Planning of operational and innovative activities of an industrial enterprise. Novosibirsk: Institute of Economics and Industrial Production Organization SB RAS, 2014. 302 p.
  22. S. Mezhov, L. Mylnikov. Specifics of project management on industrial innovation//Proceedings of International Conference on Applied Innovation in IT. 2018. Vol. 6. № 1.
  23. L. A. Mylnikov, R. Kh. Alkdirow. Approach to Forecasting the Development and Life Cycle Management of Investment Projects//Large Systems Management. Issue 27. ICS RAS. М., 2009. P. 293-307.
  24. R. A. Fayzrakhmanov, L. A. Mylnikov, R. Kh. Alkdirow, A. A. Suslova. Methodology of determination and specification of cognitive map linkage coefficients on the example of analysis of correlation between scientific research financing and patent activity//Economic analysis of theory and practice. 2013. № 30 (333). P. 43-51.
  25. V. N. Korotaev, L. A. Mylnikov. Development of innovation infrastructure and commercialization of scientific developments in the Perm National Research Polytechnic University//Innovations. 2012. № 11 (169). P. 20-27.
  26. New car sales in the USA for 2018. 2019.
  27. P. V. Popov. Diffusion: training manual for the course general physics. М.: MIPT, 2016. 94 p.
  28. P. Samuelson. The economy. Introductory course. М.: Progress, 1964. 844 p.
  29. L. Walras. Leon Walras’s Elements of Theoretical Economics. Cambridge University Press, 2014. 521 p.
  30. H. A. Takha. Introduction to operations research. M.: Williams, 2001.
  31. M. D. Korzukhin, А. М. Zhabotinsky. Mathematical modeling of chemical and ecological self-oscillating systems. М.: Nauka, 1965.
  32. А. М. Zhabotinsky. Concentration oscillations. М.: Nauka, 1974. 178 p.