Forecasting of scientific activity

Evolutionary models were proposed and for different forecast scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia headcount in research organizations and the number of patents until 2017 were calculated. Evaluation of the economic indexes of scientific activity were conducted.The analysis of statistical information shows that for effective research activities gross expenditure on R&D (GERD), per one researcher per year should be more than 100 thousand USD, and the optimal value of the share of business in GERD is ≈ 60-70%.Results showed that the difference in conditions for basic and moderately optimistic scenarios, defined by the Ministry of Economic Development, does not lead to a marked acceleration of scientific activity. The economic efficiency of scientific activity, even in the case of a moderately optimistic scenario in 2017 is expected to nearly 2%.

Keywords: indicators of science, prediction