Methods foresight of the cluster using the arbitrage technology

Held foresight of innovation and industrial cluster. We explore different possibilities of cooperation of companies within a specific cluster and choose the option of cooperation in the form of a portfolio, which will provide the greatest synergistic effect. The proposed method is based on foresight values capitalization companies cluster functions and computation of the optimal portfolio equivalent cluster of companies with arbitration techniques. This capitalization functions are put in dependence on the two market multiples — a multiplier of revenue and profit multiplier. Separate title (company) compared to equivalent portfolios of other titles (firms). Shaping for each title corresponding to the backup list, you can identify the operation with some portfolio, and the title will bring maximum profit. The greatest synergistic effect is observed where the greater the difference between the purchased (sold) by the company and selling (buying) a portfolio of other companies. This difference is equal to the value of synergy

Keywords: foresight, cluster, synergy effect of a cluster, financial arbitrage

References

  1. Avdonina S. G. The quantitative methods for innovative cluster synergetic effect evaluation. Upravleniye ekonomicheskimi sistemami: elektonnyy nauchnyy zhurnal [Management of economic systems: Scientific electronic journal], 2012, vol. 3, no. 39. (in Russ.) Available at: http://uecs.ru/uecs-39-392012/item/1147-2012-03-19-08-23-46 (accessed 01.06.2017).
  2. Buyanova M. E., Dmitrieva L. V. The evaluation of the effectiveness of the creation of regional innovation clusters. Vestnik VolGU. Seriya 3 ‘Ekonomika. Ekologiya’ [Bulletin of the VolSU. Series 3 ‘Economy. Ecology’], 2012, vol. 2, no. 21, pp. 54-62 (in Russian).
  3. Calof J., Richards G., Smith J. Foresight, competitive intelligence and business analytics – tools for making industrial programmes more efficient. Forsayt [Foresight-Russia], 2015, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 68-81 (in Russian).
  4. Chernykh L. A. Foresight project as tool for damping vibrations in cyclic at development of Russian defense industry. Sovremennaya ekonomika: problem i resheniya [Modern economics: Problems and solutions], 2012, vol. 7, no. 31, pp. 66-75 (in Russian).
  5. Damodaran A. Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002, 993 p.
  6. D’yakonov V. P. Maple 9.5/10 v matematike, fizike i obrazovanii [Maple 9.5/10 in mathematics, physics and education]. Moscow, SOLON Press, 2006, 720 p.
  7. D’yakonov V. P. Mathematica 5/6/7. Polnoye rukovodstvo [Mathematica 5/6/7. Complete guide]. Мoscow, DMK Press, 2010, 624 p.
  8. Kalyuzhnova N. Y., Verhoturova E. V. Foresight-technology as a tool for forecasting innovative development of regions. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya [Fundamental research], 2013, no. 6, pp. 1196-1203 (in Russian).
  9. Khalafyan A. A. STATISTICA 6. Statisticheskiy analiz dannykh: Uchebnik [STATISTICA 6. Statistical analysis of data: Textbook] (3rd ed.). Moscow, Bingom-Press, 2007, 512 p.
  10. Kharitonov V., Kurelchuk U., Masterov S. Long-term stochastic forecasting of the nuclear energy global market. Forsayt [Foresight-Russia], 2015, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 58-71 (in Russian).
  11. Khasanov R. Kh. Economic problems of regions and branch components. Problemy sovremennoy ekonomiki [Problems of modern economics], 2009, vol. 3, no. 31. (in Russ.) Available at: http://www.m-economy.ru/art.php?nArtId=2784 (accessed 01.06.2017).
  12. Kokh L., Prosalova V. Evaluation of synergistic effect of a medical cluster activity. Vestnik ZabGU [Bulletin of ZabGU], 2016, vol. 5, no. 22, pp. 116-123 (in Russian).
  13. Kruschwitz L. Finanzierung und investition. Munchen, Wien, R. Oldenbourg Verlag, 1999, 563 s.
  14. Limitovskiy M. A. Investitsionnye proekty i realnye optsiony na razvivayuschikhsya rynkakh: Uchebno-prakticheskoye posobiye [Investment projects and real options in developing markets: Teaching and practical aid] (4th ed.). Moscow, Urait Publishing House, 2008, 464 p.
  15. Marshall J. F., Bansal V. K. Financial engineering: A complete guide to financial innovation. New York, Institute of Finance, 1991, 728 p.
  16. Martin B. R. Project foresight, a proposal submitted to the cabinet office / B.R. Martin, et al. Brighton, UK, SPRU, University of Sussex, 1983.
  17. Martin B. R. Research foresight: Priority-setting in science / B.R. Martin et al. London and New York, Pinter Publishers, 1989.
  18. Martin B. R. The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider’s perspective. Elsevier technological forecasting and social change, 2010, pp. 1438–1447.
  19. Musaev L. A. Assessment of synergy effect of economic systems. Vestnik Yuzhno-Rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta [Bulletin of the Southern Russian state technical university], 2011, no. 3, pp. 132-137 (in Russian).
  20. Oreshnikov V. V., Ataeva A. G. The use of simulation models in the management of the regional socio-economic systems. Upravleniye ekonomicheskimi sistemami: elektonnyy nauchnyy zhurnal [Management of economic systems: Scientific electronic journal], 2015, vol. 11, no. 83. (in Russ.) Available at: http://uecs.ru/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&id=3811 (accessed 01.06.2017).
  21. Polovko A. M. Mathematica dlya studenta [Mathematica for the student]. St.-Petersburg, BHV-Petersburg, 2007, 368 p.
  22. Porter M. E.On competition.Boston, Harvard Business School Press, 1998, 485 p.
  23. Roche J. The value of nothing: Mastering business valuations. London, LES50NS (PUBLISHING) Limited, 2005, 236 p.
  24. Skach A. V. (2008) The synergistic effect of cluster-investment: the methods of quantitative and qualitative evaluation. Menedzhment v Rossii i za rubezhom [Management in Russia and Abroad], 2008, no. 3. (in Russ.) Available at: http://dis.ru/library/detail.php?ID=26594 (accessed 01.06.2017).
  25. Tukkel’ I. L., Golubev S. A., Surina A. V., Tsvetkova N. A. Metody i instrumenty upravleniya innovatsionnym razvitiyem promyshlennykh predpriyatiy [Methods and tools of innovative development of industrial enterprises]. St.-Petersburg, BHV-Petersburg, 2013, 208 p.
  26. Tukkel’ I. L., Yashin S. N., Makarov S. A., Koshelev E. V. Razrabotka i prinyatiye resheniya v upravlenii innovatsiyami [Development and decision making in innovation management: Teaching aid]. St.-Petersburg, BHV-Petersburg, 2011, 416 p.
  27. Yashin S. N., Trifonov Yu. V., Koshelev E. V. Evaluation of the strategic prospects for the development of clusters using the book value and sales multiples. Innovatsii [Innovations], 2015, no. 11, pp. 35–49 (in Russian).
  28. Yashin S. N., Tukkel’ I. L., Koshelev E. V., Zakharova Yu. V. Ekonomika i finansovoye obespecheniye innovatsionnoy deyadel’nosti. T. 2: Finansovoye obespecheniye: Uchebnik [Economy and financial provision of innovative activities. Volume 2: Financial provision: Textbook]. Nizhni Novgorod, Lobachevsky University, 2016, 709 p.
  29. ‘RBC’. Available at: http://quote.rbc.ru (accessed 01.06.2017).
  30. ‘Russian cluster observatory’. Available at: http://cluster.hse.ru/clusters/ (accessed 01.06.2017).

Authors