Methods of deterministic chaos theory in adaptive management of the innovation process

In an unstable economic situation and the rapid development of technology, innovation management is becoming an extremely difficult task that requires flexibility, the ability to quickly adapt and act in the face of uncertainty and complexity of the changes taking place. The innovation process is interpreted as a nonlinear, initial-state-sensitive system in which weak signals and micro-disturbances can cause systemic changes. There is a need to use new tools capable of considering the noted features of nonlinear systems. The theory of deterministic chaos has exactly this potential. The key element of the approach is the «butterfly effect», interpreted as a tool for detecting weak signals and predicting phase transitions in innovation dynamics. The necessity of replacing traditional linear strategies with hybrid control architectures is substantiated. Analytical tools that facilitate the quantitative diagnosis of chaotic innovation systems are presented. A classification of the forms of implementation of the «butterfly effect» in management practice and an integrative conceptual model of adaptive management focused on anticipation, flexibility and learning are proposed. The practical significance lies in the applicability of the approach in business analytics, digital transformation, innovation management and strategic planning.

Keywords: innovative system, adaptive management, theory of deterministic chaos, «butterfly effect», VUCA-world.

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