Development of approach to estimation of assessment of the duration at pilot production

Pilot production is the core of the development of complex innovative equipment, which determines the relevance of the study of management issues. The main target parameter of pilot production management is the duration of the production order. The aim of the article is to develop an approach to determining the duration of production of a complex innovative product, which will meet the pilot production specifics. The proposed approach to determining the duration of production order fulfillment has the form of interval estimation, which represents a scientific novelty. The approach takes into account the shift in the lead time for manufacturing orders, due to the specifics of pilot production, associated with fine-tuning, testing and finalizing the products. Due to the internal and external factors affecting the production situation, the duration of technological operations is proposed to be taken as a random value. The interval of duration of technological operations is determined on the basis of expert evaluation of the type of distributions of random variables, taking into account a given level of confidence. The aggregated estimation of the duration of the entire order is based on the estimation of the sum of the duration of each operation obtained using the Central Limit Theorem with Lyapunov Overlay. Such approach in the part of management decision support will allow to set the most realistic terms of production order fulfillment, minimizing the possibility of costs associated with penalties or loss of business reputation of an industrial enterprise, which provides practical relevance

Keywords: pilot production, interval planning, duration interval, production order, operation, random variablе


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