To the question of forecasting the development of economic science

The author explores the prerequisites for defining the tasks of forecasting the development of economic science. The author studies the difficulties that arose during the formation, development and development of modern economic science, studies its problems previously studied by representatives of classical economic theory and representatives of the institutional direction, offers their comprehension, as well as reinvention the theoretical construct that have developed in the industrial era, evaluated their significance and indicates the importance careful attitude to the existing system of ideas about economic phenomena and the need to study new phenomena with their help and, if necessary, the formation of new approaches and concepts. In the selected three blocks, the author pays attention to the importance of the correctness of the definition of the forecasting object, the need to form a cognitive sciencebased model of the future, and in general its design, which must be carried out by representatives of modern economic science, raises questions about the need to categorize new terms and the development of science methodology. Separately, the author notes the actualization of criticism of representatives of economic science in their desire for verification and rejection of falsification. In this regard, the author suggests that the achievement of the goals of forecasting the development of economic science largely depends on the acceptance of one or the other side of the dilemma: the dilemma of rejecting or accepting the value of the methodological imperatives of K. Popper's falsificationism, assuming that there is a mixed approach. In conclusion, the author notes that he has a plan for further research in this area

Keywords: forecasting, economic science forecasting, economic theory, methodology.

References

  1. B. Ward. What’s Wrong With Economics? London: Macmilan, 1972. 283 p.
  2. M. Blaug. The Methodology of Economics or how economists explain. Cambridge University Press, 1992.
  3. B. Caldwell. Beyond Positivism: Economic Methodology in the 20th Century. London, Allen and Unwin, 1982. 277 p.
  4. G. V. Kolodko. Where the World Is Going: The Political Economy of the Future. Moscow, Magistr. 2018. 528 p.
  5. World Future Society. https://www.worldfuture.org.
  6. A. Toffler. Future Shock. New-York, Random House, 1970. 286 p.
  7. F. Fukuyama. The End of History and the Last Man. New-York: The Free Press A Division of Macmillan, Inc., 1992, 446 p.
  8. L. Thurow. The Future of Capitalism: How Today’s Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow’s World. New York: William Morrow and Company, 1996. 385 p.
  9. L. A. Zubchenko, L. Turou. Est' li budushchee u kapitalizma? Globalizatsiya: Kontury XXI veka. № 2. 2001. P. 157-162. (In Russ.)
  10. G. Friedman. The Next Decade: What the World Will Look Like. NY, Random House, 2011. 352 p.
  11. G. Friedman. The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. New York: Doubleday, 2009. 253 p.
  12. J. Urry. What is the Future? Cambridge, Polity, 2016. 226 p.
  13. Ya. S. Matkovskaya. On Implementation of Russia's obligations under the Paris Agreement: Institutional, Legal, International, and Methodological aspects, problems and prospects for Russia's Economy Development//National Interests: Priorities and Security. 2021. Vol. 17. Iss. 12. P. 2317-2341. (In Russ.) doi: 10.24891/ni.17.12.2317.
  14. A. A. Akaev, V. A. Sadovnichii. The Human Component as a Determining Factor of Labor Productivity in the Digital Economy//Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2021. Vol. 32. № 1. Р. 29-36. doi: 10.1134/S1075700721010020.
  15. I. Lakatos. The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Philosophical Papers, 1978. 256 p.
  16. P. Feyerabend. Against Method. Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge. London: NLB, 1975. 339 p.
  17. V. Bragin. Nenuzhnyi VVP. Chem zamenit' glavnyi indikator ekonomiki//Forbes ot 09.06.2018. https://www.forbes.ru/finansy-i-investicii/362915-nenuzhnyy-vvp-chemzamenit-glavnyy-indikator-ekonomiki.
  18. Chto takoe VUCA-mir i kak adaptirovat'sya k novoi real'nosti//RBK ot 25.06.2020. https://style.rbc.ru/life/5ef1ea139a79473c5be3e750.
  19. V. V. Ivanov. Global humanitarian and technological revolution: background and perspectives//Innovations. 2017. № 6 (224). P. 11-16. (In Russ.)
  20. V. V. Ivanov, G. G. Malinetsky. Digital economy: from theory to practice//Innovations. 2017. № 12 (230). P. 3-12. (In Russ.)
  21. Filosofiya khozyaistva. Al'manakh Tsentra obshchestvennykh nauk i ekonomicheskogo fakul'teta MGU im. M. V. Lomonosova. 2017. № 1. 304 p.
  22. K. V. Molchanov. Politiko-ekonomicheskie nachala neoekonomicheskoi idei: dialekticheskoe osmyslenie sovremennoi ekonomiki kak drugoi kapitalisticheskoi ekonomiki (nekotorye polozheniya, obuslovlennye prodolzheniem truda Gegelya «Fenomenologiya dukha»)//Filosofiya khozyaistva. Al'manakh Tsentra obshchestvennykh nauk i ekonomicheskogo fakul'teta MGU im. M. V. Lomonosova. 2017. № 1. P. 175-193. (In Russ.)
  23. P. B. Kenen (ed.) International Trade and Finance. Frontiers for Research. Cambridge University Press, 1975. 539 p.
  24. A. Coddington. The rationale of general equilibrium theory//Economic Inquiry. 1975. Vol. 13. P. 539-558. doi: 10.1111/J.1465-7295.1975.TB00268.X.
  25. M. Heidegger.Osnovnye problemy fenomenologii. SPb.: VRFSh, 2001. 456 p.

Authors