Model of the educational structure of society and the forecast of the evolution of tertiary education levels

The object of the study is the educational structure of the population of the Russian Federation. The paper analyzes the current state of the educational structure of the population, gives a forecast of its development. The initial data used in this work were data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, and collections of the Higher School of Economics. A tool for studying the educational structure of the Russian population was the balance mathematical model proposed in the work in the form of differential equations that describe changes in educational levels over time and in different age groups. The technology proposed in the work for highlighting the general demographic background made it possible to find analytical solutions that describe changes in the shares of the population at various levels of education in age groups. Numerical experiments were conducted that made it possible to forecast changes in the graduations of bachelors, masters, specialists and candidates of sciences until 2031. The forecast of changes in the shares of the population in age groups with different levels of education until 2031 is given. The forecast of changes in the quality of education of people at the tertiary level of education is given

Keywords: higher education system, Bologna process, tertiary education levels, mathematical modeling, demographic forecast

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