About rapid estimation of climate risk in strategic planning of spatial development of Russia

The manifestations and consequences of climate change are becoming a concomitant factor in the development of modern society, while the frequency and intensity of these threats has trends to increase. According to calculations of climate change in various scenarios intensification of global warming is expected. Therefore, one of the important tasks is to ensure security in a changing climate during the strategic planning of the spatial development of Russia based on the theory of risks. Obviously, absolute values are not required to assess the risks of the impact of climate change in the strategic planning of spatial development, and the operativeness of calculations comes to the fore here. In this regard, an approach to the rapid assessment of relative values (variations) of climate risk is proposed. If necessary, further the absolute values of risk variation, the risk values themselves and the values of economic risk can be calculated simply. As example, the construction of the methodology for estimating climate risk due to the impact of dangerous hydrometeorological occurrence on the social field on the basis of the proposed approach is considered. A demo calculation was performed for a hypothetical scenario for the development of the Russian economy by 2036. The proposed approach allows us to solve the problems of rapid estimation of climate risks

Keywords: climate change, climate risk, risk variation, strategic planning


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