The manifestations and consequences of climate change are becoming a concomitant factor in the development of modern society, while the frequency and intensity of these threats has trends to increase. According to calculations of climate change in various scenarios intensification of global warming is expected. Therefore, one of the important tasks is to ensure security in a changing climate during the strategic planning of the spatial development of Russia based on the theory of risks. Obviously, absolute values are not required to assess the risks of the impact of climate change in the strategic planning of spatial development, and the operativeness of calculations comes to the fore here. In this regard, an approach to the rapid assessment of relative values (variations) of climate risk is proposed. If necessary, further the absolute values of risk variation, the risk values themselves and the values of economic risk can be calculated simply. As example, the construction of the methodology for estimating climate risk due to the impact of dangerous hydrometeorological occurrence on the social field on the basis of the proposed approach is considered. A demo calculation was performed for a hypothetical scenario for the development of the Russian economy by 2036. The proposed approach allows us to solve the problems of rapid estimation of climate risks
Keywords: climate change, climate risk, risk variation, strategic planning
- Climate report on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2019. Moscow: Roshydromet, 2020. 97 p. (In Russian.)
- Air pollution (World Health Organization). https://www.who.int/airpollution/ru.
- The Global Risks Report 2019. 14th Edition. World Economic Forum. Geneva. P. 114.
- Atlas of natural and technological hazards and risks of emergency situations/Ed. S. K. Shoygu. Moscow: Feoriya, 2011. 696 p. (In Russian.)
- Report on climate risks in the Russian Federation. SPb.: Climate Center of Roshydromet, 2017. 106 p. (In Russian.)
- Paris Agreement 2015 (UN Climate Change (UNFCCC). https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_russian_.pdf.
- The second assessment report of Roshydromet on climate change and its consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation. General summary. Moscow: Roshydromet, 2014. 61 p. (In Russian.)
- Climate change in Russia in the 21st century (models CMIP5). 2020. St. Petersburg: The Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. http://voeikovmgo.ru/?option=com_content&view=article&id=613&Itemid=236&lang=ru.
- Assessment of the macroeconomic effects of climate change on the territory of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and the future perspective/Ed V. M. Katsov, B. N. Porfiriev. Moscow: D'ART, 2011. 252 p. (In Russian.)
- N. V. Kobysheva, E. M. Akentieva, L. P. Galyuk. Climate risks and adaptation to climate change and variability in the technical field. St. Petersburg: Izdatelstvo Kirillitsa, 2015. 256 p. (In Russian.)
- E. N. Yakovleva, N. N. Yashalova, D. A. Ruban, V. S. Vasiltcov. Methodological approaches to assessing climate risks for the sustained development of the state//Scientific notes of RSHU. № 52. 2018. P. 120-137. (In Russian.)
- A. A. Makosko, A. V. Matesheva. On the trends of long-range atmospheric pollution of the territories of the Russian Federation in the 21st century/Ed G. S. Golitsyn,
- I. Mokhova, S. N. Kulichkova, M. V. Kurgansky, I. A. Repina, O. G. Chkhetiani. Turbulence, dynamics of the atmosphere and climate. Мoscow: Physmatkniga, 2018. P. 363-368 (In Russian.)
- A. A. Makosko, S. V. Emelina, A. V. Matesheva. Evaluation of changing weather and climate comfort conditions in Russia from 1980 to 2050//Turbulence, Atmosphere and Climate Dynamics. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Sciences, 231, 2019, 012015. P. 1-7.
- A. A. Makosko, A. V. Matesheva. Assessment of the long-range pollution trends of the atmosphere in the Arctic zone of Russia in 1980-2050 considering climate change scenarios//Arctic: ecology and economy, 1 (37), 2020. P. 45-52. (In Russian.)
- A. A. Makosko, A. V. Matesheva. The methodology of indexing the dynamics of air pollution to assess environmental safety in strategic planning of regional development// Innovation. № 10 (228). 2017. P. 76-80 (In Russian.)
- A. A. Makosko, A. V. Matesheva. Estimating the trends of remote pollution of the atmosphere when planning spatial development of Russia//Innovation. 2019. № 8 (250). P. 27-32. (In Russian.)
- B. N. Porfiriev, S. A. Voronina, V. V. Semikashev et al. Climate change impact on economic growth and specific sectors’ development of the Russian Arctic||Arctic: ecology and economy. 2017. № 4 (28). P. 4-17. (In Russian.)
- V. A. Akimov, V. V. Lesnykh, N. N. Radaev. Fundamentals of analysis and risk management in the natural and technogenic sphere. Мoscow: Delovoy express, 2004. 352 p. (In Russian.)
- N. A. Machutov, N. V. Abrosimov, M. M. Gadenin. Safety is a priority in basic and applied research//Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast. 2013. № 3 (27). P. 46-71. (In Russian.)
- N. A. Machutov, R. S. Achmetchanov. A systematic approach to risk assessment and management//Safety and Emergency Issues. VINITI RAS. 2012. № 5. P. 56-68. (In Russian.)
- V. V. Oganesyan, А. M. Sterin. Calculation of potential financial damage from dangerous and adverse meteorological occurrence on the territory of the Russian Federation in 1987-2017//Meteorology and hydrology. 2019. № 12. P. 97-108. (In Russian.)
- Federal State Statistics Service 2020. https://www.gks.ru/folder/12781.
- How will the population in Russia change 2018. https://zen.yandex.ru/media/reburg/kak-budet-meniatsia-chislennost-naseleniia-v-rossii-5c42c9e67211c900ae964353.
- G. S. Golitsyn, A. A. Vasiliev. Climate change and its impact on the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological occurrence//Meteorology and hydrology. 2019. № 11. P. 9-12. (In Russian.)