Revenue dynamics of enterprises in high-tech sectors in crisis conditions: econometric modeling

Revenue growth is one of the most important goals of enterprise development. It determines the success of the enterprise itself and affects the economic performance of the industry and the economy. The aim of the paper is to model the impact of financial and non-financial, internal and external factors on the dynamics of the revenue of enterprises. The object of the study are enterprises of high-tech industries and services in Russia. Study period: 2013-2017. Research methods include regression modeling (random-effect model, rank regression, quantile regression). The full sample includes 1684 enterprises or 8420 observations. Results. Highly significant positive impact of asset growth rates on revenue growth rate was revealed. We found non-linear (U-shape) relationships between the size of the enterprise, the share of borrowed capital and the rate of revenue growth and showed. Medium-sized enterprises, enterprises with high and low financial stability show higher revenue growth rates. We also revealed that the increase in the share of borrowed capital in the balance sheet in the previous year has a highly significant positive effect on the growth rate of revenue for the current year. Therefore, to overcome the crisis, enterprises need access to borrowed resources. The crisis, as a rule, reduces the availability of credit resources, and the state should try to overcome this problem. The highly significant negative impact of the increase in the share of fixed assets in assets on the growth rate of revenue shows that in a crisis, the growth of enterprises occurs due to the outstripping increase in current assets, rather than fixed assets. Moreover, successful enterprises seek to reduce the share of fixed assets in the balance sheet, which means that their investment costs are reduced. A decrease in investment activity in the conditions of prolonged stagnation can lead to a technological lag of enterprises in high-tech industries, and this problem should also be taken into account in state policy. We found that the worsening economic situation in Russia (lower oil prices, higher interest rates on loans, an increase in the dollar rate) has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of revenue for enterprises in most high-tech sectors. The crisis stimulates import substitution and positively affects the rate of revenue growth only in the pharmaceutical industry. Identified patterns should be taken into account in the state innovation policy to stimulate the development of high-tech sectors for the current and upcoming period

Keywords: evenue dynamics, growth of firms, patterns of development, enterprises, high-tech sectors, Russia, crisis, econometric modeling, panel data

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