Influence of increasing retirement age on the gross domestic product in Russia

The paper presents results of the study using mathematical-statistical models that allow one to assess the effect of increasing the retirement age on the processes of production of the GDP of the Russian Federation. The analysis of real statistical data and three variants of forecasting the number of able-bodied population up to 2036 indicated a steady decline in the number of able-bodied population since 2006. Our estimates indicate that an increase in the retirement age would stop the steady decline in the number of ablebodied people in the Russian Federation: the value of 2006 with a high variant of the forecast will be reached by 2029, with an average variant by 2032, 2006 will not be achieved. A study showed that increasing the retirement age would lead to an increase in GDP (by an average of 0,35% per year) relative to the old pension scheme, providing an increase of 6,5% by 2036. A forecast was made for the physical volume of GDP in 2018-2036, made under conditions of «old» and «new» pension schemes. This forecast considered two cases. The first case is the preservation of investments in fixed assets at the level of 2017: the «old» scheme will ensure the fall of the physical volume of GDP, the new one — its insignificant growth for medium and high options. The second case — the level of investment is determined by the need to ensure the average world GDP growth rates indicated by the May presidential decree: the effect of the reform in reducing investment in fixed assets (by 0,61% per year) required to ensure GDP growth at a world average of 3% per year

Keywords: retirement reform, labor, GDP, production functions, forecast


  1. С. А. Власов, М. О. Мамедли. Сценарный анализ параметров пенсионной системы в контексте устойчивости государственных финансов России//Деньги и кредит. 2017. №. 8. С. 26-33.
  2. Т. Г. Омельчук. Направления развития пенсионной системы//Журнал НЭА. 2012. № 3 (15). С. 182-185.
  3. А. Ивантер. Публицистика вместо действий//Эксперт. 2018. № 26 (1080). С. 20-24.
  4. F. Caselli. Accounting for Cross-country Income Differences//Handbook of Economic Growth, 2005, No. 1. Р. 679-742.
  5. G. S. Becker, T. J. Philipson, R. R. Soares. The quantity and quality of life and the evolution of world inequality//American Economic Review, 2005, No. 1 (95). P. 277-291.
  6. Е. Обухова, К. Пахунов, А. Ивантер. Это реформа, детка!//Эксперт, 2018, № 26 (1080). С. 13-19.
  7. Н. В. Акиндинова, К. С. Чекина, А. М. Яркин. Экономический рост в России с учетом демографических изменений и вклада человеческого капитала//Экономический журнал высшей школы экономики, 2017, № 4 (21). С. 533-561.
  8. А. Г. Вишневский, Е. М. Щербакова. Демографические тормоза экономики//Вопросы экономики, 2018, № 6. С. 48-70.
  9. C. W. Cobb, P. H. Douglas. A Theory of Production//American Economic Review, 1928, No. 18. P. 139-165.
  10. J. Felipe, F. G. Adams. A Theory of Production The Estimation of the Cobb-Douglas Function: A Retrospective View//Eastern Economic Journal, 2005, Vol. 31, No. 3. Р. 427-445.
  11. T. Skufina, S. Baranov, V. Samarina, T. Shatalova. Production functions in identifying the specifics of producing gross regional product of Russian Federation//Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2015, Vol. 6, No.5, Supplement 3, September. P. 265-270.
  12. В. А. Колемаев. Экономико-математическое моделирование. М.: Юнити-Дана, 2000. 399 с.
  13. Карточка законопроекта в Системе обеспечения законодательной деятельности.
  14. Social Security Programs Throughout the World.
  15. Прогноз развития экономики Российской Федерации до 2024 г.
  16. Предположительная численность населения Российской Федерации.
  17. Указ Президента Российской Федерации от 07.05.2018 г. № 204 «О национальных целях и стратегических задачах развития Российской Федерации на период до 2024 г.».
  18. Данные Мирового банка.