Approach to developing modeling tools for the federal risk management system

The article presents the results of studies on the creation of a federal risk management system (FSUR). To this end, a model of the FSUR was assembled and based on the results obtained for its parametric study, proposals were formulated to create a pilot version of the FSUR and its architecture. A model of the life cycle of a threat is described, within which it is proposed to consider three levels of threat realization. Options are offered to counter threats to economic security at every level of its implementation. Counteraction to threats is made through control actions, which are developed on the basis of the results of expert assessments and modeling. A hypothesis has been put forward that it is expedient to implement the life cycle of the control action in two phases of decision-making. The first phase is the development of a control action to prevent/neutralize risks and threats («disturbance» of the system). The second is the development and implementation of a management decision to eliminate the consequences of “indignation”. Analysis of each phase is proposed to be carried out using models of varying complexity. Modules of the FSUR are described. The results confirming the hypothesis that it is expedient to realize the control cycle in the FSUR in two phases are obtained. On the basis of experiments with the simulation model of the M2 aggregate, it was revealed that setting one target value for macroeconomic indicators is not enough, it is necessary to specify the intervals of the target values

Keywords: life cycle of the threat, risk management phase, control effect, economic security, federal system of risk management, modeling, expert assessments


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