Evaluating complexity of innovative projects

The paper focuses on complexity evaluation for innovative projects, which are unique, rely on incomplete or semi-structured information, and are influenced by uncertainty factors. Four categories of project complexity are considered — simple, moderately complex, highly complex and megaprojects. A two-level system of characteristics with relative significance coefficients is applied. Uncertainty of external conditions of projects is considered by situations that may occur in the future with certain probability. Evaluation of project complexity is performed by a group of experts with assigned competency coefficients. For determining relative significance coefficients of characteristics, probabilities of situations and competency coefficients of experts, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is applied. Relying on expert estimates special indices allowing classification and ranking projects according to their complexity are calculated. Approbation of the proposed approach is executed using Super Decisions software, by the example of a university’s innovative project

Keywords: innovative project, project complexity, expert estimates, situations, project complexity index, analytic hierarchy process


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