Outlines of Russia’s Space Strategy

Currently, both Russia and the world system are at a bifurcation point. The previous trajectory associated with accelerated technological development and globalization, in the version promoted by the West, has lost its stability. It’s time to choose the direction of further movement. This fully applies to the space industry, which is an important part of our technosphere, a frontier of scientific research and an important tool for ensuring national security. Right now it is important to understand what we want and can achieve in 20 to 30 years, based on system analysis, mathematical modeling ideas and accumulated experience. The large-scale space activity programs of the leading countries are an important, but far from decisive argument in this context. The purpose of these notes is to outline the contours of the desired future of Russian space, to begin a meaningful discussion of this important topic. The Roman philosopher Lucius Seneca argued: “For a man who does not know which harbor he is heading for, no wind will be fair.” It’s time to discuss our destination port. The existing problems of space activity in Russia might be attributed to a number of reasons, which have a single axiological basis. Moreover, space activity worldwide is experiencing a lack of new development imperatives, acquiring an increasingly utilitarian character in comparison with the past of cosmonautics. This transformation is associated with a number of factors, one of which, general among all other reasons, is the lack of a strategic vision of the space industry. At the moment, in Russia there is no clear concept of a relatively long-term future of space activities in main strategic documents. The necessity to turn to space in order to achieve a number of goals and measurable problems in the space industry dictates the need to analyze the current state of the industry and make forecasts and recommendations for its further development. The article examines the space programs imperatives of several leading states and suggests the imperatives of future space research in Russia

Keywords: space activity, synergetics, attractive management, attractor, image of the future, space industry, space programs of the leading powers, Russian space activity prospects

References

 

  1. «V Roskosmose sravnili svoy byudzhet i NASA.» (2020). Tass. Retrieved from https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7734535 (In Russ.)
  2. Erygina, L. V., & Serdyuk, R. S. (2014). The state of the Russian rocket and space industry and trends of its development. Sibirskiy aerokosmicheskiy zhurnal, (1), [online article]. Retrieved from https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sostoyanie-rossiyskoy-raketno-kosmicheskoy-promyshlennosti-i-tendentsii-eyo-razvitiya (In Russ.)
  3. Federal Law of the Russian Federation No. 5663-I «On Space Activities» of August 20, 1993. Retrieved from https://base.garant.ru/136323 (In Russ.)
  4. «Interv’yu D. O. Rogozina.» Roskosmos. Retrieved from https://www.roscosmos.ru/37817 (In Russ.)
  5. Kalinina, Y. V. (2014). The Russian space industry: Problems and prospects for development. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, (2), [online article]. Retrieved from https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/rossiyskaya-kosmicheskaya-otrasl-problemy-i-perspektivy-razvitiya (In Russ.)
  6. Kapitsa, S. P., Kurdyumov, S. P., & Malinetskiy, G. G. (2003). Synergetics and Future Predictions. 3rd ed. Moscow: Editorial URSS. (In Russ.)
  7. Kim, O. L., & Shkuratov, N. P. (2019). Problems of assessing the efficiency of implementing state programs in the Russian Federation. Vestnik Komi Respublikan Akademii gosudarstvennoy sluzhby i upravleniya, (23), 11–13 (In Russ.)
  8. Maximova, M. V. (2023). Attractive management: At the intersection of synergetics and ideology construction. Science. Society. Future: Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific and Practical Conference. Tver: Tver State University, 55–59 (In Russ.)
  9. Moiseev, I. M. (2012). Development of the Russian space industry: Basic strategies. Zemlya iz kosmosa: naibolee effektivnye resheniya, (13), 7–14 (In Russ.)
  10. Onoprienko, V. D., Emelin, A. A., Zhamkova, V. S., & Gavrikov, V. E. (2021). Development of the fundamental methodology for system planning of rocket and space technology in the rocket and space industry. In K. E. Tsiolkovsky and the Progress of Science and Technology in the XXI Century: Proceedings of the 56th Scientific Readings, 293–297. Kaluga: IP Streltsov I. A. (In Russ.)
  11. «Osnovnye polozheniya osnov gosudarstvennoy politiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii v oblasti kosmicheskoy deyatel’nosti na period do 2030 goda i dalneyshuyu perspektivu.» (2013). Retrieved from https://legalacts.ru/doc/osnovnye-polozhenija-osnov-gosudarstvennoi-politiki-rossiiskoi-federatsii/ (In Russ.)
  12. «Roskosmos schitaet, chto vopros urezaniya finansirovaniya kompanii vyzovet diskussiyu v kabmine.» (2020). Tass. Retrieved from https://tass.ru/kosmos/9094629 (In Russ.)
  13. «Rossiya smojet razvivat’ raketno-kosmicheskuyu programmu, zayavil Putin.» (2022). RIA Novosti. Retrieved from https://ria.ru/20220412/kosmos-1783066141.html (In Russ.)
  14. Skryl, T. V., & Markov, A. Y. (2021). Problems of realizing the potential of the space industry in the process of forming a digital economy. TsitisE, (3), 96–105 (In Russ.)
  15. Stepanov, A. A. (2018). The space services market and the form of organization of the Russian rocket and space industry. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniĭ: Ekonomika, finansy i upravlenie proizvodstvom, (1), 37–40 (In Russ.)
  16. Semenchenko, I. (2020). Three years of aimless work. Voenno-promyshlennyi kurier. Retrieved from https://vpk-news.ru/articles/63505 (In Russ.)
  17. Trubinova, T. S., & Ivanchenko, A. (2016). On strategic planning for the development of the space industry as a direction of structural economic policy in Russia. Reshetnëvskie chteniya, (20), [online article]. Retrieved from https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/o-strategicheskom-planirovanii-razvitiya-kosmicheskoy-otrasli-kak-napravlenii-strukturnoyekonomicheskoy-politiki-rossii (In Russ.)
  18. «Federal’naya kosmicheskaya programma Rossii na 2016–2025 gody.» (2016). Roskosmos. Retrieved from https://www.roscosmos.ru/22347 (In Russ.)
  19. «Federal’nyi zakon ot 13 iyulya 2015 g. N 215-FZ ‘O Gosudarstvennoy korporatsii po kosmicheskoy deyatel’nosti ‘Roskosmos’.» (2015). Retrieved from https://base.garant.ru/71127782 (In Russ.)
  20. Khalutornykh, O. N., & Maximova, M. V. (2021). Social utopia as a tool for attractive management: The philosophical aspect. Vestnik Tadzhikskogo natsional’nogo universiteta, (3), 103–111 (In Russ.)
  21. Euroconsult. (2022). Space Economy Report, 9th edition. Press Release. Retrieved from https://www.euroconsult-ec.com/press-release/value-of-space-economyreaches-424-billion-in-2022-despite-new-unforeseen-investment-concerns-2
  22. «V Kitae opublikovana Belaya kniga o kosmicheskoy programme strany.» (2022). Novosti Kosmonavtiki. Retrieved from https://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/82652 (In Russ.)
  23. Danilin, I. V. (2021). The «New Space» of China: Current state and prospects. Russian International Affairs Council. Retrieved from https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-andcomments/analytics/kitayskiy-novyy-kosmos-sostoyanie-i-perspektivy/ (In Russ.)
  24. Danilin, I. V. (2020). Commercial space and the phenomenon of «astropreneurship.» Russian International Affairs Council. Retrieved from https://russiancouncil.ru/analyticsand-comments/analytics/kommercheskiy-kosmos-i-fenomen-astroprenyerstva/ (In Russ.)
  25. Danilin, I. V. (2019). US space initiatives: Remilitarization or hybrid? Russian International Affairs Council. Retrieved from https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/kosmicheskie-initsiativy-ssha-remilitarizatsiya-ili-gibrid/ (In Russ.)
  26. Paison, D. B., Botman, D. A., Dyugovanets, Y. I., & Maximova, M. V. (2021). Business Space: The Ten Most Important Events of 2021. Moscow: Sberbank. (In Russ.)
  27. Krasheninnikova, L. S. (2016). China’s space program: From Soviet rockets to its own space station. Russian International Affairs Council. Retrieved from https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/kosmicheskaya-programma-knr-ot-sovetskikh-raket-k-sobstvenno/ (In Russ.)
  28. Kupriyanov, A. V. (2018). The farthest frontier. Russian International Affairs Council. Retrieved from https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/samyydalniy-frontir-/ (In Russ.)
  29. Mitrokhina, A. Kh. (2014). Legal regulation of European Union activities in the exploration and use of outer space (Doctoral dissertation). Moscow. (In Russ.)
  30. «Sber-Kosmos-Sber: Conference Report, May 26, 2021.» (2021). Edited by A. R. Efimov. Moscow: Sberbank. (In Russ.)
  31. «Tsikl publichnykh diskussiy ‘Kto, chto i kak delayet v kosmose. Proekty i subyekty v kosmonavtike.’» (2015). Issue 75. Moscow. (In Russ.)
  32. «NASA’s Lunar Exploration Program Overview.» NASA. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/
  33. «ESA Vision.» ESA. Retrieved from https://vision.esa.int/
  34. «EU Global Action on Space: Market Report Asia.» (2022). Issue 1.
  35. «Eurospace Facts & Figures Annual Release: Key 2021 Facts.» (2022). Eurospace. Press release.
  36. «Indian Space Policy 2023.» ISRO. Retrieved from https://www.isro.gov.in/media_isro/pdf/IndianSpacePolicy2023.pdf
  37. Rohera, M. (2021). Indian Space Policy for the Private Sector. CSIS. Retrieved from https://aerospace.csis.org/indian-space-policy-for-the-private-sector/
  38. Goswami, N., & Garretson, P. (2020). Scramble for the Skies: The Great Power Competition to Control the Resources of Outer Space. Lanham: Lexington Books.
  39. Goswami, N. (2022). Indian Space Program and its Drivers: Possible Implications for the Global Space Market. Notes de l’Ifri, Ifri. Retrieved from https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/notes/notes-de-lifri/indian-space-program-and-its-drivers-possible-implications-global
  40. «Nasa’s Moon to Mars Strategy and Objectives Development.» (2023). NASA. Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/m2m_strategy_and_objectives_development.pdf
  41. «National Aeronautics Science and Technology Strategic Priorities.» (2023). The White House. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/032023 National-Aeronautics-ST-Priorities.pdf
  42. Jiwei, Q., & Bojian, L. (2020). China’s Space Industry: Background, Recent Developments, and Challenges. EAI Bulletin, No. 1571. Retrieved from https://research.nus.edu.sg/eai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/08/EAIBB-No.-1571 Chinas-space-industry-2.pdf
  43. «Report of the High-Level Advisory Group on Human and Robotic Space Exploration for Europe. Revolution Space.» (2023). ESA. Retrieved from https://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/corporate/h lag_brochure.pdf
  44. «Terrae Novae 2030+ Strategy Roadmap.» ESA. Retrieved from https://destination-orbite.net/documentations/Terrae_Novae_2030+strategy_roadmap.pdf
  45. Rao, U. R. (2008). India’s Space Program — Past, Present and Future. Harvard Asian Pacific Review, 9 (2), 24.
  46. Malinetskiy, G. G. (2022). Synergetics — A New Style of Thinking: Subject Knowledge, Mathematical Modeling, and Philosophical Reflection in a New Reality. Moscow: URSS.(In Russ.)
  47. Bell, D. (2004). The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting. Moscow: Academia. (In Russ.)
  48. Malinetskiy, G. G. (2021). The philosophical context of a space pause. In Filosofskie opyty, Issue 12, edited by N. V. Gonotskaya, 141–157. Moscow: Izdatel Vorobyov A. V. (In Russ.)
  49. Ivanov, V. V., & Malinetskiy, G. G. (2020). Russia: XXI Century. Strategy for a Breakthrough. Technology. Education. Science. 3rd ed. Moscow: Lenand. (In Russ.)
  50. M. V. Keldysh: A Creative Portrait through the Memories of Contemporaries. (2002). Moscow: Nauka. (In Russ.)
  51. Pereslegin, S. (2010). Return to the Stars: Science Fiction and Evolution. Moscow: AST; SPb: Terra Fantastica. (In Russ.)
  52. Schwab, K. (2017). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo «E». (In Russ.)
  53. Fursov, A. (2023). Global Supercrisis Will Come Right on Schedule. Zavtra. Retrieved from https://zavtra.ru/blogs/global_nij_superkrizis_pridyot_tochno_po_raspisaniyu (In Russ.)
  54. Gurova, T., & Polunin, Y. (2017). The advance of «blue-collar workers.» Ekspert, (3), 13–17 (In Russ.)
  55. Moiseev, N. N. (2013). Mathematical Problems of Systems Analysis. 3rd ed. Moscow: Librokom. (In Russ.)
  56. Young, L. C. (1974). Lectures on the Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control Theory. Translated by M. S. Eluashvili, edited by V. M. Alekseev. Moscow: Mir. (In Russ.)
  57. Malinetskiy, G. G., & Maximova, M. V. (2023). The Moiseev Imperative of Directed Development: Navigating Between Scylla and Charybdis. In Moiseev Readings. Humanitarian Challenges and Threats of the XXI Century: VI All-Russian Scientific Conference, Reports and Materials in 2 Volumes, Vol. I, 3–17. Moscow: Moscow Humanitarian University Press. (In Russ.)
  58. Shustov, B. (2023). Small bodies of the solar system as major space resources. Znaniye-sila, (3), 6–12 (In Russ.)
  59. Slyuta, E. (2022). Gas fields on the Moon, key lunar technologies, and the summits of eternal light. Znaniye-sila, (3), 13–15 (In Russ.)
  60. Volkova, Y. (2023). Borisov said that the Russian satellite industry is uncompetitive. RBC. Retrieved from https://rbc-ru.turbopages.org/rbc.ru/s/politics/27/10/2023/653bab0b9a7947b643fb1909 (In Russ.)
  61. Zulkarnayeva, K. (2023). Yuri Borisov: «We face a grand task to turn the situation around.» Prokosmos. Retrieved from https://prokosmos.ru/2023/10/27/yurii-borisov-perednami-stoit-grandioznayazadacha-perevernut-situatsiyu (In Russ.)
  62. Galilullina, M. (2023). Yuri Borisov on Russia’s failure in space: «We lived off Soviet heritage. We simply slept through it.» Oboz. Retrieved from https://oboz.info/yurijborisov-o provale-rossiiv kosmose-zili-doedaya-sovetskoe-nasledstvo-my-prosto-prospali (In Russ.)
  63. Pavlenko, O. (2023). Borisov spoke about the poor personnel state of the rocket and space industry. Kommersant. Retrieved from https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5954302 (In Russ.)
  64. Huntington, S. (2003). The Clash of Civilizations. Moscow: AST. (In Russ.)
  65. «Plenary Session of the World Russian People’s Council.» (2022). Kremlin. Retrieved from http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72863 (In Russ.)
  66. «Address by the President to the Federal Assembly on March 1, 2018.» (2018). Kremlin. Retrieved from http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957 (In Russ.)
  67. Pervushin, A. I. (2016). The Last Space Chance. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo «E». (In Russ.)
  68. «Socio-Economic Bulletin, 2022.» Edited by A. V. Shcherbakov. (2023). Moscow: Griffin. (In Russ.)
  69. Filimonov, V. V., Malinetskiy, G. G., & others. (2018). Integral transit transport system of Russia based on vacuum magnetic levitation transport. In Projecting the Future: Problems of Digital Reality, 102–107. Moscow: IPM named after M. V. Keldysh. (In Russ.)
  70. Vladimirov, V. A., Vorobyov, Y. L., & Malinetskiy, G. G. (2000). Risk Management. Risk, Sustainable Development, Synergetics. Moscow: Nauka. (In Russ.)
  71. «Kosmos — eto religiya.» (2018). Rogozin named 10 commandments of Roscosmos. Russkaya Vesna. Retrieved from https://rusvesna-su.turbopages.org/rusvesna.su/s/news/1530178282 (In Russ.)
  72. «Rogozin stated that construction at the Vostochny cosmodrome will continue.» (2021). Tass. Retrieved from https://tass-ru.turbopages.org/tass.ru/s/kosmos/10809043 (In Russ.)
  73. Stepanov, A. (2019). «And we do not hear the roar of the cosmodrome.» How billions were stolen at Vostochny. Tsargrad. Retrieved from https://tsargrad.tv/articles/i slyshen-nam-ne-rokot-kosmodroma-kak-vorovali-milliardy-na-vostochnom_225504 (In Russ.)
  74. Barova, E. (2020). Space thefts: Every tenth ruble is stolen at Vostochny. Argumenty i Fakty. Retrieved from https://aif.ru/society/law/kosmicheskie_hishcheniya_na_vostochnom_ukraden_kazhdyy_10_rubl (In Russ.)
  75. «Rogozin commented on his departure as head of Roscosmos.» (2022). RIA Novosti. Retrieved from https://ria.ru/20220715/roskosmos-1802769290.html (In Russ.)
  76. Sejnowski, T. (2022). The Anthology of Machine Learning: Key AI Studies over the Past 60 Years. Translated by M. A. Wrightman & E. V. Sazanova. Moscow: Eksmo. (In Russ.)
  77. Konyaev, A. (2013). Imagine how we felt. Lenta.ru. Retrieved from https://lenta.ru/articles/2013/01/29/laspace (In Russ.)
  78. Ferguson, N. (2017). Civilization: The West and the Rest. Moscow: AST, Corpus. (In Russ.)
  79. «GLONASS is on the offensive.» (2023). Zavtra. Retrieved from https://zavtra.ru/blogs/kto_kogo_otklyuchit_glonass_perehodit_v_nastuplenie (In Russ.)
  80. Yevlev, P. (2023). Russia launched the latest navigation satellite «Glonass-K2» from the Plesetsk cosmodrome. Digital Ocean. Retrieved from https://digitalocean.ru/n/glonass-k uzhe-na-orbite (In Russ.)
  81. Kuzicheva, D. (2023). Putin announced an impending absolute revolution in communications. IoT.ru. Retrieved from https://iot.ru/promyshlennost/putin-obyavil-o gryadushchey-absolyutnoy-revolyutsiiv sfere-svyazi (In Russ.)
  82. «A brief history of the company: From paper mill to epic downfall.» (2023). Dzen. Retrieved from https://dzen.ru/a/YyF4tqyX9SNUSsx6 (In Russ.)
  83. Aladyin, V., Kovalyov, V., Malkov, S., & Malinetskiy, G. (2015). Remember the War: An Analytical Report for the Russian Intellectual Club. Moscow: Academy of Military Sciences. (In Russ.)
  84. «Tableau.» (2023). Zavtra, (50), 1. (In Russ.)
  85. Friedman, G. (2010). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Moscow: Eksmo. (In Russ.)
  86. Moiseev, N. N. (2002). How Long Until Tomorrow… Free Reflections, 1917–1993. Moscow: Taydex Co. (In Russ.)
  87. Toffler, E., & Toffler, H. (2005). War and Anti-War: What War Is and How to Fight It. How to Survive at the Dawn of the 21st Century. Translated by M. B. Levin. Moscow: AST, Transitkniga. (In Russ.)
  88. Romashkina, N. P. (2023). Space as a sphere of confrontation. Information Wars, (2), 16–24 (In Russ.)
  89. Krasnoslobodtsev, V. P., Kuzmin, Y. N., & others. (2022). The space race: The end of the confrontation between two superpowers. Strategic Stability, (3), 3–8 (In Russ.)
  90. Komarov, S. M. (2023). Colonization of the world of dust. Khimia i Zhizn’, (5), 12–21 (In Russ.)
  91. Vozmishcheva, T. G. (2020). A modified model of war or battle and arms race based on the Lotka-Volterra model as a model of state confrontation: Numerical and qualitative analysis. In Information Society: Education, Science, Culture, and Future Technologies, Issue 4, 72–91. Saint Petersburg: ITMO University. (In Russ.)
  92. Akhromeeva, T. S., Kurdyumov, S. P., Malinetskiy, G. G., & Samarsky, A. A. (2007). Structures and Chaos in Nonlinear Media. Moscow: Fizmatlit. (In Russ.)
  93. Lem, S. (2003). Weapon systems of the 21st century or evolution upside down. In Biblioteka XXI veka, translated by K. Dushenko. Moscow: AST, 542–578. (In Russ.)
  94. Romanenkov, A. (2022). Come closer: Why the West is so afraid of Russian inspector satellites. Life.ru. Retrieved from https://life.ru/p/1529152 (In Russ.)
  95. «The Nudol system compared to other missile defense components.» (2021). TopWar.ru. Retrieved from https://topwar.ru/183698 kompleks-nudol-na-fone-drugih-komponentovpro. html (In Russ.)
  96. Norin, E. (2017). A virus more dangerous than a bomb: How hackers destroyed a nuclear plant in Iran. Life.ru. Retrieved from https://life.ru/p/1047800 (In Russ.)
  97. Tegmark, M. (2017). Our Mathematical Universe: My Quest for the Ultimate Nature of Reality. Moscow: AST, Corpus. (In Russ.)
  98. Galimov, E. M. (2013). The Phenomenon of Life: Between Equilibrium and Nonlinearity. Origin and Principles of Evolution. Moscow: URSS. (In Russ.)
  99. Chernavskiy, D. S. (2017). Synergetics and Information: A Dynamic Theory of Information. 5th ed. Moscow: Lenand. (In Russ.)
  100. Galimov, E. M. (2010). Designs and Miscalculations: Fundamental Space Research in Russia in the Last Two Decades: Twenty Years of Fruitless Efforts. Moscow: Editorial URSS. (In Russ.)
  101. Baturin, Y. M. (2018). Masters of Infinity: An Astronaut on Profession and Destiny. Moscow: Alpina Publisher. (In Russ.)
  102. Lem, S. (2020). Tales of Pirx the Pilot. Moscow: AST. (In Russ.)
  103. Krikalev, S. K. (2011). The Russian system of astronaut selection and training. In Become an Astronaut. A Subjective Story with Feedback, by S. A. Zhukov, 14–19. Moscow: RTSoft. (In Russ.)
  104. Zubrin, R., & Wagner, R. (2017). The Case for Mars: The Most Comprehensive Plan to Take Our Planet Back. Moscow: Eksmo. (In Russ.)
  105. «Moon or Mars?» (2013). In Brainstorming. Selected Discussions, by A. Urmantseva, 128–58. Moscow: ZAO «SVR-Mediaproekty.» (In Russ.)
  106. Galimov, E. M. (2012). Who Needs Lunar Rocks? Presentations, Interviews, Popular Science Publications: 50 Years in Science. Moscow: Krasand. (In Russ.)
  107. Dmitriev, A. S. (2022). Interstellar travel: The road is made by walking. In Designing the Future: Problems of Digital Reality, edited by G. G. Malinetskiy, 282–90. Moscow: IPM named after M. V. Keldysh. (In Russ.)
  108. Lem, S. (2021). Solaris. Moscow: AST. (In Russ.)
  109. Gumilyov, L. N. (1992). From Rus to Russia: Essays on Ethnic History. Moscow: Express. (In Russ.)
  110. Malinetskiy, G. G., & Kolesnikov, A. V. (2023). A sociological approach to the Fermi Paradox. Iskusstvennye Obshchestva, 18 (2). (In Russ.)
  111. Zabelin, K. (2023). Russian cosmism from Gagarin to Gagarin: Why was Yuri first, not Nikolay? Knife. Retrieved from https://knife.media/russian-cosmist__ (In Russ.)

Authors